TECHNOLOGY EXPLAINER
Battery Material Resources and Sourcing
— not how much is in the ground, but who mines it, who refines it, and what can stop
Battery materials may be plentiful in the Earth's crust, yet supply can be halted by policy or accident because a few countries mine them and a still smaller number refine them. This article checks where lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite, phosphorus and copper are produced, using statistics of the US Geological Survey (USGS), checks the concentration of refining and processing in International Energy Agency (IEA) reports, and sorts export controls into promulgated, in force and suspended. It does not deal with prices or price forecasts.
- What resource risk is (the short version)
- Where each material comes from — USGS statistics
- Our calculation: top-three shares and "years" of reserves
- Concentration of refining and processing — mining and refining countries differ
- Export controls and restrictions — promulgated, in force, suspended
- Choice of materials and resource risk — the motives behind LFP and sodium-ion
- Notes by material — graphite, phosphorus, copper
- Limits, and what could not be confirmed
- How to read evaluations and standards
- Glossary
- References (primary sources)
- Claim-to-source audit
Sourced = stated in published material (link given)
Our calculation = a figure this article derived, with the assumptions spelled out
Not yet confirmed = scenarios, plans and suspended measures whose record or force has not been confirmed
Materials-design interpretations are marked separately as Commentary. Inference is shown in bold. Measures are distinguished as promulgated (announced) / in force / suspended.
Figures on resources, supply chains and trade rest on statistics and reports of public bodies (USGS, IEA, governments). Market estimates by research firms, price forecasts and figures that only appear in the press are not used. Statistics include estimates and rounded values and are revised. This article does not rate any country or company. Export controls are policy decisions of the countries concerned and no political judgement is made here.
1. What resource risk is (the short version)
- Concentration, more than quantity: for many battery materials, world reserves are tens to hundreds of times annual production (our calculation in Section 3). The problem is that mining and refining are concentrated in a few countries, so policy or accident can cut supply all at onceSourced / Our calculation [Sources 2–9]
- The mining country and the refining country differ: according to the IEA, the average share of the top refined supplier was 70% in 2025 (68% in 2020), with Indonesia on top for nickel and China for most other key mineralsSourced [Sources 9, 10]
- Export controls became real: the IEA says that in 2025 the risk of concentration "materialised at scale". An export control can change stage after promulgation (in force, suspended), so which stage it is in has to be read carefullySourced [Sources 9, 14, 15]
The shape of the risk for battery materials is less "will it run out?" than "which stage is concentrated in which country, and what can stop?" The choice of materials (LFP, sodium-ion and so on) is one motive for avoiding that concentration. But each chemistry leaves some other dependence in place (Commentary).
2. Where each material comes from — USGS statistics
From the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (February 2026) we take 2025 (estimated) mine production and reservesSourced [Sources 1–8]. Units differ by material.
| Material (main role in batteries) | World mine production 2025e | Leading producers (output) | World reserves | Leading reserve holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium (cathode, electrolyte; unit: t Li content) | 290,000 (excluding the US) | Australia 92,000 / China 62,000 / Chile 56,000 / Zimbabwe 28,000 / Argentina 23,000 | 37,000,000 | Chile 9.2 Mt / Australia 8.4 Mt / China 4.6 Mt / Argentina and US 4.4 Mt each |
| Nickel (high-nickel cathodes; unit: t Ni content) | 3,900,000 | Indonesia 2,600,000 / Philippines 270,000 / Russia 200,000 / Canada 140,000 / New Caledonia 140,000 | >140,000,000 | Indonesia 62 Mt / Australia 25 Mt / Brazil 16 Mt |
| Cobalt (NMC and NCA cathodes; unit: t Co content) | 310,000 | DRC 230,000 / Indonesia 44,000 / Russia 7,700 | 12,000,000 | DRC 6.0 Mt / Australia 1.7 Mt / Indonesia 0.76 Mt |
| Manganese (NMC and other cathodes; unit: thousand t, manganese content) | 20,000 | South Africa 7,600 / Gabon 5,000 / Ghana 2,000 / Australia 1,600 | 1,800,000 | Australia 580,000 / South Africa 550,000 / Brazil 300,000 / China 260,000 |
| Natural graphite (anode; unit: t) | 1,800,000 | China 1,400,000 / Madagascar 80,000 / Tanzania 75,000 / Brazil 65,000 / Mozambique 60,000 | 310,000,000 | China 100 Mt / Brazil 74 Mt / Madagascar 27 Mt / Mozambique 25 Mt |
| Phosphate rock (source of phosphorus for LFP; unit: thousand t) | 250,000 | China 110,000 / Morocco 36,000 / US 20,000 / Russia 14,000 / Jordan 12,000 | 73,000,000 | Morocco 50,000,000 / China 3,400,000 |
| Copper (current collectors, wiring; unit: thousand t Cu content) | 23,000 | Chile 5,300 / DRC 3,200 / Peru 2,700 / China 1,800 | 980,000 | Chile 180,000 / Australia 100,000 |
All Sourced (USGS tables [Sources 2–8]; figures are rounded). Reserves are the quantity judged economically extractable at the time; they are not resources (which are larger) and change with exploration and price. The lithium world total excludes the United States (its output is withheld). The "role in batteries" column is this article's own sorting.
The phosphorus in LFP comes from phosphate rock. USGS notes that phosphate rock was added to the US list of critical minerals (Federal Register, 7 November 2025). Most phosphate rock goes to fertiliser: over 95% of US output is used to make wet-process phosphoric acid and similar productsSourced [Source 7]. Battery use needs purified phosphoric acid, which is why the IEA includes "purified phosphoric acid" among the battery materials in its price grouping [Source 9]. So LFP avoids dependence on cobalt and nickel, but uses a different chain: phosphate rock → phosphoric acid → purified phosphoric acid for batteries, which competes with fertiliser (Commentary).
3. Our calculation: top-three shares and "years" of reserves
Two indicators from the table in Section 2Our calculation.
- Top-three share: sum of the top three countries' output ÷ world total. Cobalt (DRC 74.2% + Indonesia 14.2% + Russia 2.5%) = about 91%. Nickel (Indonesia 66.7% + Philippines 6.9% + Russia 5.1%) = about 79%. Natural graphite (China 77.8% + Madagascar 4.4% + Tanzania 4.2%) = about 86%. Manganese (South Africa 38.0% + Gabon 25.0% + Ghana 10.0%) = about 73%. Lithium (Australia 31.7% + China 21.4% + Chile 19.3%) = about 72%. Phosphate rock (China 44.0% + Morocco 14.4% + US 8.0%) = about 66%. Copper (Chile 23.0% + DRC 13.9% + Peru 11.7%) = about 49%
- Reserves ÷ 2025 production: lithium 37,000,000 ÷ 290,000 = about 128; nickel 140,000,000 ÷ 3,900,000 = about 36 (lower bound); cobalt 12,000,000 ÷ 310,000 = about 39; manganese 1,800,000 ÷ 20,000 = 90; natural graphite 310,000,000 ÷ 1,800,000 = about 172; phosphate rock 73,000,000 ÷ 250,000 = 292; copper 980,000 ÷ 23,000 = about 43
Assumptions and limits: shares are computed from the USGS 2025 (estimated) table and may differ by a few percent from USGS's own text (for natural graphite, for example, the text says China produced about 82% in 2025, but the table's 2025 values give about 78% and its 2024 values give about 82%; since the text and the table disagree, this article does not say which is right). The "years" are not a forecast of when a resource runs out: reserves rise and fall with exploration, price and technology, and demand changes. What the calculation shows is only the pattern that "quantity is less the problem than concentration of production and refining".
4. Concentration of refining and processing — mining and refining countries differ
The country that mines a material and the country that refines it to battery grade are not the same. The IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 sets out the followingSourced [Sources 9, 10, 11].
- Refining concentration rose: for energy minerals, the average share of the top refined supplier was 70% in 2025 (68% in 2020); excluding rare earths, 72% (70% in 2023)
- The top supplier is Indonesia for nickel and China for the other key minerals: these two accounted for over three quarters of the growth in refined supply from 2023 to 2025
- Almost all growth from one country: for manganese, nickel and graphite, virtually all supply growth came from the leading supplier
- Above 90% for graphite, manganese and others: for gallium, graphite, manganese and rare earths, China as top refiner accounts for over 90% of global supply
On cobalt, USGS states that the DRC accounted for about 73% of mine production, and that China is the world's leading producer and leading consumer of refined cobalt, with consumption mainly in the lithium-ion battery industry [Source 3]. For graphite, US imports of battery anode material (natural and synthetic) in 2025 came from China (55%), Indonesia (31%) and the Republic of Korea (14%) [Source 5].
Even if mine output is sufficient, a material cannot go into a battery unless refining and processing to battery grade (conversion to lithium carbonate or hydroxide, precursor synthesis, spheroidising, purifying and coating graphite and so on) keeps up. The IEA points out that mining growth outside the dominant supplier can exceed the capacity for making cathode material (an outlook to 2035)Not yet confirmed [Source 11]. For materials companies, capacity in the intermediate steps (powder synthesis, firing, coating) and access to the equipment and technology for them are the heart of resource risk (Commentary). That the Chinese export controls in the next section reach cathode materials, precursors, anode materials, equipment and technology rather than ores fits this point.
In its base case, the IEA says the projected 2035 supply gap for cobalt widens from "just over 15%" to "over 25%" (because of the DRC's export quota), and that the projected 2035 gap for copper narrowed from about 30% to 25%Not yet confirmed [Source 11]. These are outlooks based on particular scenarios, not outcomes. They are used here only for the point that a policy change can quickly change the supply outlook.
5. Export controls and restrictions — promulgated, in force, suspended
An export control can change its date of effect, be suspended, or have its deadline moved even after it is promulgated. The main measures that could be confirmed are sorted by stage.
| Measure | Content (official material) | Stage (checked 10 October 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| China: export controls on graphite | China has applied temporary export controls to graphite products since 2006. From 1 December 2023, high-purity, high-strength, high-density synthetic graphite materials and products and flake natural graphite and products cannot be exported without a licence. The Ministry of Commerce said this adjusted the controls, removing some low-sensitivity graphite items, and was not aimed at any country [16, 17] | In force (since 1 December 2023). This article did not find any suspension or repeal |
| China: revision of the catalog of technologies subject to export restriction | Announced by the Ministry of Commerce on 15 July 2025 (reported by Xinhua). Battery cathode material preparation technology (including lithium iron phosphate) was added to the restricted list, and controls were placed on techniques including spodumene-based lithium carbonate production [18] | Revision announced. The detailed effective date could not be confirmed |
| China: Announcement No. 58 of 2025 (lithium batteries and synthetic graphite anode materials) | Promulgated 9 October 2025. It covers rechargeable lithium-ion batteries of 300 Wh/kg or more by weight (cells and battery packs), their manufacturing equipment (winders, stackers, electrolyte fillers, formation and grading and so on) and technology, LFP cathode material (compaction density of 2.5 g/cm³ or more and 156 mAh/g or more), ternary cathode precursors (nickel cobalt manganese hydroxide, nickel cobalt aluminium hydroxide), lithium-rich manganese-based cathode material and its manufacturing equipment, synthetic graphite anode material and blended synthetic/natural graphite anode material, their equipment (granulation, graphitisation, coating) and technology. Licensing applies; it was to take effect on 8 November 2025 [14] | Promulgated. Application is suspended (next row) |
| China: Announcement No. 70 of 2025 (decision to suspend) | On 7 November 2025 it decided to suspend the implementation of Announcements Nos. 55, 56, 57 and 58 and others, from that day until 10 November 2026. Its status is listed as "currently in force" [15] | Suspended. The suspension runs to 10 November 2026. Whether it will be resumed or extended afterwards could not be confirmed Not yet confirmed |
| DRC: cobalt exports | According to USGS, exports were temporarily banned in February 2025 and replaced in October by an export quota: 18,125 t of contained cobalt for the rest of 2025, and up to 96,600 t a year in 2026 and 2027 (including 9,600 t for national strategic reserves) [3] | The quota system is in operation (as USGS describes it). Details of how it is run could not be confirmed |
| Zimbabwe (lithium), Mozambique (graphite) | The IEA lists trade restrictions by Zimbabwe on lithium and by Mozambique on graphite as examples of other countries' new restrictions [9] | The content and stage of these measures could not be confirmed |
| United States: Chinese graphite anode material | According to USGS, in 2025 the Department of Commerce set, as preliminary results, antidumping duties of 93.50% and countervailing duties of 11.58% to 721.03% (by company) [5] | Preliminary measure (the final determination could not be confirmed) |
All Sourced (the reference for each row). Dates follow the published material. Date checked: 10 October 2026.
News reported Announcement No. 58 as "China introduces export controls on battery materials", but according to the official material it was suspended the month after promulgation, the day before it was to take effect. "Introduced", "in force" and "suspended" are different stages; on the date checked it was "promulgated and suspended". The suspension ends on 10 November 2026, and what happens afterwards could not be confirmed. Figures and dates in this article can change after the date checked, so check each government's latest announcements before any decision.
6. Choice of materials and resource risk — the motives behind LFP and sodium-ion
Choosing materials is driven not only by performance and cost but also by the wish to avoid concentration of resources. What public-body material allows us to confirmSourced.
LFP: the choice that avoids cobalt has become mainstream
- According to the IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026, over 55% of EV batteries deployed worldwide in 2025 were LFP (nearly 50% in 2024), and LFP accounted for over 90% of global stationary storage installations [Source 12]
- High-nickel chemistries use relatively small quantities of cobalt, and LFP contains none [Source 12]. USGS notes that the cobalt content of lithium-ion batteries was being decreased and that cobalt-free substitutes using iron and phosphorus held significant market share in China [Source 3]
- The IEA says cobalt demand to 2040 has moderated because of the rise of LFP (a demand scenario) [Source 11] Not yet confirmed
Sodium-ion: a hedge against lithium prices, and cold-weather performance
- According to the IEA, investment in sodium-ion batteries is driven mainly by better performance in cold climates and reduced exposure to lithium price volatility. The latest generation can retain about 90% of nominal capacity at temperatures as low as -40 °C [Source 13]
- Limit: the latest cells reach up to about 175 Wh/kg, against up to about 205 Wh/kg for LFP and up to about 255 Wh/kg for NMC (the IEA's wording; indicative cell-level upper values, a comparison of values under differing conditions) [Source 13]
- Scale: in 2025 global sodium-ion production was less than 1% of lithium-ion. The IEA says current lithium price levels are not yet high enough for sodium-ion batteries to undercut LFP costs in most applications [Source 13]
LFP removes dependence on cobalt and nickel and instead uses lithium, phosphorus (purified phosphoric acid) and iron. Sodium-ion removes dependence on lithium, but has an energy-density limit and small scale. Every chemistry keeps some dependence on other materials, such as anode materials and copper current collectors (Commentary).
For a designer, the question becomes not "which material to eliminate" but "how much dependence on which material to accept". For a materials supplier, the flip side of resource risk is that demand swings greatly with which chemistry customers choose. LFP cathodes and sodium-ion materials are covered in our explainers on cathode materials, sodium-ion batteries and hard-carbon anodes.
7. Notes by material — graphite, phosphorus, copper
Graphite: concentration of production and processing is the largest
China dominates mine production of natural graphite (about 86% for the top three countries, Section 3), and according to the IEA China also accounts for over 90% of refining (processing to battery grade) [Sources 5, 11]. USGS notes that synthetic graphite powder and secondary synthetic graphite compete for use in battery applications [Source 5]. The IEA estimates that if battery-grade graphite trade were fully disrupted, over USD 300 billion a year of downstream production outside China would be at risk (a scenario estimate)Not yet confirmed [Source 9]. Graphite anode design and the choice between natural and synthetic graphite are covered in our explainer on graphite anodes and electrode design.
Phosphorus: batteries and fertiliser share the same chain
China produces about 44% of phosphate rock and Morocco holds about 69% of reserves (Sections 2 and 3). Purified phosphoric acid for batteries is made from the same chain as fertiliser. The IEA records that disruption in sulphur supply pushed up the price of sulphuric acid and raised the cost of hydrometallurgical processing of copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium and others, and that China curbed sulphuric acid exports in May 2026 [Source 9]. That battery-material refining depends on a basic chemical such as sulphuric acid is a risk that statistics on resources do not easily show.
Copper: demand outside batteries is the main actor
Copper is used in batteries for current collectors and wiring, but in the IEA's account demand from electricity infrastructure such as grids is the main driver, and the projected 2035 supply gap for copper (base case) is about 25% [Sources 9, 11] Not yet confirmed. As for refining, the USGS table puts China at about 48% of world refined copper (14,000 thousand t ÷ 29,000 thousand t, our calculation) [Source 8].
The EU Batteries Regulation's minimum shares of recycled cobalt, lithium and nickel can be read as aiming to dilute this concentration (Commentary). Recycled-content rules are covered in our explainer on the battery regulation and battery passport, and recovery technology in our explainer on battery recycling and second life.
8. Limits, and what could not be confirmed
(1) The nature of the statistics
The USGS 2025 values are estimates based on national reports and company disclosures, and are revised. The lithium world total excludes the United States, and some country figures are estimated. For manganese, the table is headed "manganese content" while the unit note at the top of the page says "gross weight"; this article followed the table heading (content).
(2) Country shares of refining
The IEA's detailed country shares of refining for each material are in charts and could not be confirmed in the text obtained, so only the average share of the top refiner and the "over 90%" statement are used.
(3) Export controls
What happens to Announcement No. 58 after the end of its suspension (10 November 2026), the effective date of the technology catalog revision, the content of the Zimbabwe and Mozambique measures, and the final determination of the US antidumping duties could not be confirmed.
(4) Prices and outlooks
Prices are not covered. IEA scenarios (such as projected supply gaps) are labelled "Not yet confirmed" and are used only for the point that policy changes can alter an outlook.
(5) Outside the scope
Other materials such as iron, aluminium, fluorine (electrolyte salts), sodium and sulphur (lithium–sulfur batteries) are not covered. Materials for all-solid-state batteries are covered in our all-solid-state battery series.
- Reserves are tens to hundreds of times annual production (our calculation, not a forecast), but mine production is concentrated in a few countries: the DRC about 74% of cobalt, Indonesia about 67% of nickel and China about 78% of natural graphiteSourced / Our calculation
- Refining is more concentrated still. The average share of the top supplier is 70% (2025), and China has over 90% for graphite, manganese and othersSourced
- Export controls must be read by stage. China's graphite controls have been in force since December 2023; Announcement No. 58 is promulgated but suspended until 10 November 2026; the DRC's cobalt is under a quota systemSourced / Not yet confirmed
- LFP was over 55% of EV batteries and over 90% of stationary storage in 2025. The choice that avoids cobalt became mainstream, but dependence on lithium, phosphorus and graphite for the anode remainsSourced
- Sodium-ion does not use lithium, but its 2025 output was under 1% of lithium-ion and it has an energy-density limitSourced
9. How to read evaluations and standards
Before comparing which number is larger, align the basis of comparison in the following order. This is an editorial reading checklist, not a set of test conditions or acceptance limits prescribed by a standard.
- 1. What was measured?
- reserves, mine production, refining capacity and supply concentration. Check the units and whether the result describes a material, component or complete system.
- 2. Under which conditions?
- reporting year, country boundary, ore versus metal, units and estimation method. Treat results under different conditions as separate results before comparing them.
- 3. The comparison trap
- Do not confuse reserves with annual production; examine mining and refining concentration separately.
- 4. What does the standard cover?
- Check the identifier, title, edition and scope in the issuing body’s material. Distinguish test methods, safety, interoperability and management requirements. Naming a standard alone does not establish that a test, conformity assessment or certification has been completed.
Keep a comparison note containing the object, units, conditions, sample count and variation, comparator, standard edition and unresolved points. Do not invent numerical conditions or acceptance limits from a public abstract of a standard.
10. Glossary
- Reserves
- The quantity judged extractable with current technology and economics. Smaller than resources, and changing with exploration and price.
- Resources
- A broader quantity whose existence is estimated, larger than reserves.
- Content
- The amount of the metal itself in an ore or product, as distinct from gross weight.
- Refining and processing
- Steps that turn ore or concentrate into battery-usable purity and form (lithium carbonate, nickel sulfate, spheroidised graphite and so on).
- Precursor
- A raw material for cathode active material, such as nickel–cobalt–manganese hydroxide.
- Export control
- A system requiring government permission to export specified goods or technology.
- Dual-use items
- Goods and technology usable for both civil and military purposes; the term describes the scope of China's export controls.
- Export quota
- A state-set ceiling on the quantity that may be exported.
- MOFCOM
- China's Ministry of Commerce, which issues export-control announcements.
- LFP
- Lithium iron phosphate, a cathode with no cobalt or nickel.
- NMC
- Nickel manganese cobalt oxide cathode.
- Sodium-ion battery
- A battery that uses sodium instead of lithium.
11. References (primary sources)
- US Geological Survey (USGS) "Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026" (February 2026) — pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2026
- USGS MCS 2026 "Lithium" (PDF) — pubs.usgs.gov
- USGS MCS 2026 "Cobalt" (PDF) — pubs.usgs.gov
- USGS MCS 2026 "Nickel" (PDF) — pubs.usgs.gov
- USGS MCS 2026 "Graphite (Natural)" (PDF) — pubs.usgs.gov
- USGS MCS 2026 "Manganese" (PDF) — pubs.usgs.gov
- USGS MCS 2026 "Phosphate Rock" (PDF) — pubs.usgs.gov
- USGS MCS 2026 "Copper" (PDF) — pubs.usgs.gov
- International Energy Agency (IEA) "Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026", Executive summary (2026) — iea.org
- IEA "Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026", Market overview — iea.org
- IEA "Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026", Outlook — iea.org
- IEA "Global EV Outlook 2026", Electric vehicle batteries — iea.org
- IEA "Sodium-ion battery momentum grows, but challenges remain" (commentary) — iea.org
- China, Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs Announcement No. 58 of 2025, decision on export controls on items related to lithium batteries and synthetic graphite anode materials, 9 October 2025 (in Chinese) — mofcom.gov.cn
- China, Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs Announcement No. 70 of 2025, decision to suspend implementation of Announcements Nos. 55, 56, 57, 58 and others, 7 November 2025 (in Chinese) — mofcom.gov.cn
- China, Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson's answers on graphite export controls at the regular press conference of 30 November 2023 (in Chinese) — exportcontrol.mofcom.gov.cn
- State Council Information Office of China (Xinhua report) "Ministry: China's graphite export controls are common practice, not targeted at any country", 1 December 2023 — english.scio.gov.cn
- State Council Information Office of China (Xinhua report) "China revises catalog of technologies subject to export controls", 16 July 2025 — english.scio.gov.cn
12. Claim-to-source audit
| Claim in the text | Basis | Class |
|---|---|---|
| Lithium 2025 mine production (world 290,000 t, excluding the US; Australia 92,000, China 62,000, Chile 56,000, Zimbabwe 28,000, Argentina 23,000) and reserves (world 37,000,000 t; Chile 9.2 Mt, Australia 8.4 Mt, China 4.6 Mt, Argentina and the US 4.4 Mt each). 88% of use is in batteries | USGS MCS 2026 Lithium Reference 2 https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-lithium.pdf | Sourced |
| Cobalt mine production (world 310,000 t; DRC 230,000, Indonesia 44,000, Russia 7,700) and reserves (12,000,000 t; DRC 6.0 Mt). USGS's statements (DRC about 73%; China the leading producer and consumer of refined cobalt; cobalt content being decreased; cobalt-free substitutes using iron and phosphorus), the DRC export ban (February 2025) and quotas (18,125 t; up to 96,600 t a year in 2026 and 2027) | USGS MCS 2026 Cobalt Reference 3 https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-cobalt.pdf | Sourced |
| Nickel mine production (world 3,900,000 t; Indonesia 2,600,000, Philippines 270,000, Russia 200,000, Canada and New Caledonia 140,000 each) and reserves (>140,000,000 t; Indonesia 62 Mt, Australia 25 Mt, Brazil 16 Mt) | USGS MCS 2026 Nickel Reference 4 https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-nickel.pdf | Sourced |
| Natural graphite mine production (world 1,800,000 t; China 1,400,000 and others) and reserves (310,000,000 t; China 100 Mt and others); USGS's statements (China about 82% in 2025; shares of US anode material imports by country; preliminary antidumping duty of 93.50% and countervailing duties of 11.58–721.03%; synthetic graphite as a competing substitute in batteries) | USGS MCS 2026 Graphite Reference 5 https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-graphite.pdf | Sourced |
| Manganese mine production (world 20,000 thousand t; South Africa 7,600, Gabon 5,000, Ghana 2,000, Australia 1,600) and reserves (1,800,000 thousand t). The table is in manganese content; the unit note at the top of the page says gross weight | USGS MCS 2026 Manganese Reference 6 https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-manganese.pdf | Sourced |
| Phosphate rock mine production (world 250,000 thousand t; China 110,000, Morocco 36,000, US 20,000) and reserves (73,000,000 thousand t; Morocco 50,000,000); the addition to the US list of critical minerals (7 November 2025); over 95% of US output used for wet-process phosphoric acid and similar | USGS MCS 2026 Phosphate Rock Reference 7 https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-phosphate.pdf | Sourced |
| Copper mine production (world 23,000 thousand t; Chile 5,300 and others), refined copper production (world 29,000 thousand t; China 14,000) and reserves (980,000 thousand t) | USGS MCS 2026 Copper Reference 8 https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-copper.pdf | Sourced |
| IEA: the average share of the top refined supplier of 70% in 2025 (68% in 2020), 72% excluding rare earths; Indonesia on top for nickel and China for the others; almost all supply growth from the leading supplier for graphite, manganese and nickel; over 90% for China in graphite, manganese and others; the imbalance between lithium mining and cathode-making capacity; that the risks of concentration materialised in 2025; China's October 2025 announcement of battery-related export controls; the estimate that over USD 300 billion a year of downstream production is at risk if graphite trade is disrupted; sulphuric acid prices and China's curb on sulphuric acid exports (May 2026); purified phosphoric acid among battery materials | IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 Reference 9 https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary Reference 10 https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/market-overview Reference 11 https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/outlook | Sourced |
| IEA scenarios: the 2035 cobalt supply-gap outlook widening from “just over 15%” to “over 25%”, copper narrowing from about 30% to 25%, and cobalt demand moderating because of LFP | Scenarios such as the IEA's base case, not outcomes Reference 11 https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/outlook | Not yet confirmed |
| LFP at over 55% of EV batteries and over 90% of stationary storage in 2025; high-nickel chemistries use less cobalt and LFP none. Sodium-ion motives (cold-climate performance, hedge against lithium prices), about 90% of nominal capacity at -40 °C, energy densities (up to about 175, LFP about 205, NMC about 255 Wh/kg), and output under 1% of lithium-ion in 2025 | IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 and an IEA commentary Reference 12 https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries Reference 13 https://www.iea.org/commentaries/sodium-ion-battery-momentum-grows-but-challenges-remain | Sourced |
| The items covered by China's Announcement No. 58 of 2025 (batteries of 300 Wh/kg or more, manufacturing equipment and technology, LFP cathode material, ternary precursors, lithium-rich manganese-based cathode, synthetic and blended graphite anode materials with their equipment and technology), the scheduled effect on 8 November 2025, and the suspension by Announcement No. 70 until 10 November 2026 (currently in force) | Announcements of China's Ministry of Commerce and Customs Reference 14 https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/2025/art_79646f0161564975a938fe00fee158d5.html Reference 15 https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2025/art/2025/art_da147202d0934ddebe252772e95ed7b3.html | Sourced |
| China's graphite export controls (in force from 1 December 2023; an adjustment of temporary controls since 2006) and the July 2025 revision of the technology catalog (cathode material preparation technology; spodumene-based lithium carbonate production) | Ministry of Commerce spokesperson, Xinhua reports Reference 16 http://exportcontrol.mofcom.gov.cn/article/gndt/202312/927.html Reference 17 http://english.scio.gov.cn/pressroom/2023-12/01/content_116851500.htm Reference 18 http://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2025-07/16/content_117980520.html | Sourced |
| What happens after the end of the suspension of Announcement No. 58 (10 November 2026), the effective date of the technology catalog revision, the content of the Zimbabwe and Mozambique measures, and the final US antidumping determination | Not given, because they could not be confirmed in the official material accessible to this article. They can change after the date checked Reference 15 https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2025/art/2025/art_da147202d0934ddebe252772e95ed7b3.html | Not yet confirmed |
| Top-three shares (cobalt about 91%, nickel about 79%, natural graphite about 86%, manganese about 73%, lithium about 72%, phosphate rock about 66%, copper about 49%), China's share of natural graphite (about 78% from the 2025 table, about 82% from the 2024 table), reserves ÷ production (lithium about 128, nickel about 36 or more, cobalt about 39, manganese 90, natural graphite about 172, phosphate rock 292, copper about 43), China's share of refined copper of about 48% | Our calculation: values in the USGS tables divided by the world total (shares), or reserves divided by production. The lithium world total excludes the US. May differ from USGS's text. Not a forecast of depletion | Our calculation |
| Prices, research-firm estimates, price forecasts, materials such as iron, aluminium and fluorine, and the detailed country shares of refining for each material in IEA charts | Not given, because of this article's policy or because they could not be confirmed in the text of the official material | Commentary |
| The readings “even the phosphorus in lithium iron phosphate is a resource question”, “what is short is battery-grade, not material”, “choosing a chemistry shifts resource risk”, and “recycling dilutes concentration”. The sorting that China's measures reach intermediate materials, equipment and technology rather than ore | This article's own sorting and commentary based on the published material. Not a view stated by any company or body | Commentary |
| That Figs. 2, 3 and 5 are explanatory drawings, not official diagrams or real data, and that Figs. 1 and 4 are AI-generated images | Note from this article | Commentary |
Last updated 10 October 2026. Sources are limited to statistics, reports and announcements of public bodies (USGS, IEA, China's Ministry of Commerce and Customs). Prices, price forecasts and research-firm market estimates are not used. Statistics include estimates and measures can be changed, suspended or resumed; changes after the date checked are not reflected. Because the article includes structural readings and materials-design interpretations, those are marked as Commentary and kept separate from sourced fact. What happens after the suspension of Announcement No. 58 ends, the effective date of the technology catalog revision, the content of the Zimbabwe and Mozambique measures, the final US antidumping determination, and the detailed country shares of refining in IEA charts could not be confirmed and are not stated here. All figures are explanatory concept graphics. Figs. 2, 3 and 5 are vector drawings; Figs. 1 and 4 are AI-generated images, and none of them shows an official statistical chart or a real mine, plant or product.