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US Grid Batteries: Fire Risk Trends and 2025 Failure Rates

Canary Media USA
Overview
Annual failure rates for US grid-scale batteries fell by more than 97% between 2016 and 2025, despite a 250-fold increase in cumulative deployments. Data indicates that battery failure rates are now comparable to those of legacy oil-filled substation transformers, suggesting that public concern over fire risk is disproportionate to actual technical risk.
In Depth

Key Findings

Data compiled by the nonprofit Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) reveals that the annual failure rate of commercial and grid-scale batteries in the U.S. has plummeted as installations have grown exponentially. By 2025, the failure rate decreased by more than 97% compared to 2016 levels, while cumulative deployments increased 250-fold. Notably, there were three separate years within the last decade where no known failures occurred.

Technical Details

The EPRI report tracks global failures, including arc flash, fire, and explosion events. The decline in failure rates is attributed to several factors:

  • Implementation of new safety standards since the installation of the first large-scale batteries.
  • Increased sophistication in battery chemistry and design.
  • Improved project layouts and safety engineering.

However, lead author Lakshmi Srinivasan notes that the dataset is limited by a small sample size because failures are relatively rare.

Background & Context

While the overall trend is downward, the raw tally does not account for event severity. Significant incidents include a 2019 fire outside Phoenix that seriously injured four emergency responders and a January 2025 blaze at California’s Moss Landing facility. The Moss Landing event destroyed the power plant and required multi-day community evacuations, though no injuries were reported.

Significance & Outlook

EPRI calculations show that grid battery units now fail at a rate comparable to oil-filled transformers used in substations to convert voltage. Despite this technical parity, battery projects face significantly higher public scrutiny than legacy transformer infrastructure. Providing this data may help communities calibrate the risks of hosting battery installations against benefits such as enhanced grid reliability, tax revenue, and reduced electricity costs.

Source: https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/batteries/us-grid-batteries-fire-risk

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