Key Findings
Recent Asia supply chain checks conducted by KeyBanc analyst John Vinh confirm persistent, strong demand for AI chips across the entire semiconductor ecosystem. NVIDIA’s 2027 CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) supply forecast for its Rubin and Rubin Ultra GPUs has been significantly raised by 69% to 1.1 million interposers year-over-year. Concurrently, AMD is projected to achieve over 50% unit growth next year, driven by expanding server CPU capacity, with its CoWoS supply expected to increase from 80,000-90,000 units this year to 130,000 units next year. These figures unequivocally highlight the sustained high demand for advanced packaging.
Technical and Clinical Details
CoWoS is a 2.5D/3D packaging technology that integrates GPU dies and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) stacks onto a silicon interposer, delivering the ultra-high bandwidth and power efficiency essential for AI accelerators. NVIDIA’s Rubin and Rubin Ultra GPUs, as next-generation AI chips, heavily rely on this CoWoS technology to provide larger-scale data processing and faster inference capabilities. KeyBanc’s analysis suggests that despite significant expansion in TSMC’s CoWoS capacity, NVIDIA is securing the majority of it. The increase in CoWoS supply for AMD’s server CPUs signifies that its “Venice” CPUs are enhancing their ability to process AI workloads more directly, bolstering their competitiveness in the high-performance computing market. This expanding demand underscores the lengthy lead times (7-9 months) for CoWoS manufacturing equipment and the ongoing need for continuous capital investment in capacity expansion.
Background and Industry Context
The evolution of AI is fundamentally transforming the semiconductor industry, with high-speed data transfer between chips and power efficiency becoming new performance bottlenecks beyond mere computational power increases. To address these challenges, advanced packaging, especially technologies like CoWoS, has become indispensable. TSMC is a dominant player in the CoWoS market, and its capacity directly influences the production plans of AI chip manufacturers. The intense competition between NVIDIA and AMD for CoWoS supply clearly demonstrates that advanced packaging capacity is a key differentiator and success factor in the AI chip market. Efforts to secure long-term CoWoS supply agreements and strengthen vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities are also accelerating.
Strategic Significance and Outlook
The upward revision of CoWoS supply for NVIDIA and AMD suggests that the AI market’s robust growth will continue. Particularly, as NVIDIA’s Rubin series further drives the AI chip market, the stabilization of its supply will accelerate the adoption of AI technologies. The expansion of CoWoS demand in AMD’s server CPU business means the company will increase its presence not only in AI accelerators but also in the broader data center market. However, the supply-demand balance for CoWoS remains tight, necessitating continuous expansion of supply capacity and technological innovation. For investors, advanced packaging technologies and associated capital expenditures will continue to be a significant growth theme across the entire semiconductor ecosystem.
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