AI Infrastructure Component Crunch Becomes Reality: ABF Substrate Lead Times Hit 56 Weeks, Equipment Parts Up to 40 Months

September 20, 2026

BigGo Finance Taiwan

Overview

The supply shortage for AI infrastructure components is becoming entrenched; TrendForce reports ABF substrate lead times surged to 48–56 weeks, approximately 4 to 4.7 times the equilibrium. HDDs reached 50 weeks, DRAM 20 weeks, and MLCCs 30 weeks, with all five tracked categories (excluding GPUs) in shortage. Semiconductor equipment parts are particularly critical, with some Japanese-made crucial components facing lead times up to 40 months. Structural factors like slow component supplier expansion, rising CAPEX, and HBM production burdens make short-term resolution unlikely.

In Depth

Key Findings

The supply shortage for critical semiconductor components essential for AI infrastructure is intensifying, transitioning from a temporary issue to a structural crisis. According to the latest TrendForce analysis, lead times for ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrates, a key material for AI accelerators, have skyrocketed to 48–56 weeks, representing approximately 4 to 4.7 times the normal equilibrium. Furthermore, other major components such as Hard Disk Drives (HDDs) at 50 weeks, DRAM at 20 weeks, and Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitors (MLCCs) at 30 weeks are also experiencing significant shortages, with all five major categories tracked (excluding GPUs) now in deficit. Alarmingly, lead times for some critical semiconductor manufacturing equipment parts, particularly those from Japan, are reportedly extending up to an unprecedented 40 months.

Technical / Clinical Details

ABF substrates serve as vital interconnect foundations for integrating multiple chips (CPUs, GPUs, HBMs, etc.) in high-performance AI processors. Their manufacturing demands sophisticated process technology and dedicated equipment, inherently leading to long lead times. The current dramatic increase in lead times underscores the demand for AI significantly outpacing forecasts and the limits of existing production capacities.

HDDs, DRAM, and MLCCs are also indispensable for building AI data centers and edge devices. The scarcity of these components will delay the overall deployment of AI systems. The most critical aspect is the supply issue for semiconductor manufacturing equipment parts. As lead times for components required by equipment manufacturers (e.g., precision-machined parts, optical components, control systems) extend, it creates a vicious cycle where the expansion of semiconductor manufacturing capacity itself is hindered.

This supply crunch stems from multiple structural factors: the slow pace of capacity expansion by component manufacturers, rising raw material prices and capital expenditure costs, and the technical and resource burden associated with High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) production. These intertwined factors make a short-term resolution extremely challenging.

Background & Context

The rapid advancement of AI technology is accelerating the expansion of data center scale and processing power, consequently driving an exponential increase in demand for related semiconductor and electronic components. However, the semiconductor supply chain is an extremely complex and multi-layered structure, possessing vulnerabilities where bottlenecks in one area can cascade throughout the entire system. Specifically, ABF substrates, which require advanced manufacturing processes, and manufacturing equipment parts that depend on specific suppliers, inherently struggle to keep pace with rapid demand surges. Unlike previous semiconductor shortages, the current situation is characterized by structural and composite factors rather than a single market driver.

Strategic Significance & Outlook

The normalization of AI infrastructure component shortages is likely to have long-term implications for the growth trajectory of the AI industry. Semiconductor manufacturers and system integrators will be compelled to prioritize supply chain resilience, accelerating multi-supplier strategies, optimizing inventory management, and investing in alternative technologies. Policymakers are also urged to further strengthen international cooperation and support for domestic manufacturing capabilities to alleviate bottlenecks across the entire semiconductor ecosystem. The prolonged lead times for manufacturing equipment parts pose a risk to the overall semiconductor industry’s capital expenditure cycle, potentially further delaying the expansion of future supply capacity.

Source: https://finance.biggo.com/news/02cf5c8f-c58d-45f8-a7a3-8fe37716bc8f

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