Key Findings
A research team led by the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) has created an improved model for predicting solar events by integrating activity from the far side of the Sun. The resulting framework constructs surface flux transport (SFT) models that are more complete and accurate than previous iterations. This model allows scientists to better monitor the Sun’s magnetic field behavior and plot future solar cycles.
Technical Details
The team developed the model by studying near-simultaneous maps of the entire solar surface from 2010 to 2014, combining Earth-based observations with data from space-based assets. A critical component of the new framework is the systematic evaluation of active regions identified via helioseismology—the use of acoustic waves to detect activity beneath the surface or on the far side.
To improve accuracy, the team implemented a probabilistic model to address “ghost active regions,” which are false positives where acoustic data indicates activity that does not appear when the region rotates into view. By associating a probability with each far-side active region based on its properties, the model weeds out these errors before incorporating the data into the SFT models.
Background & Context
Because the Sun rotates on its axis approximately every 27 days, half of its surface remains hidden from Earth at any given time. Previous SFT models were hampered by this lack of simultaneous far-side data; for example, sunspots would occasionally emerge unexpectedly from the far side, necessitating rapid recalculations. While helioseismology was introduced in the 1970s to mitigate this, the prevalence of ghost active regions continued to limit forecasting precision.
Significance & Outlook
The new probabilistic framework provides a practical pathway for incorporating helioseismic data into SFT models, leading to more realistic modeling of both visible and invisible hemispheres. This advancement enhances the ability to forecast space weather that can impact Earth. The study, titled “A Probabilistic Framework for Incorporating Helioseismic Far-Side Active Regions into SFT Models,” was published in The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series.
Source: https://www.swri.org/newsroom/press-releases/swri-led-team-develops-improved-model-mapping-the-sun
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